Published: Fri, April 06, 2018
World | By Camille Rivera

Watch out Florida: Forecast predicts active 2018 hurricane season

Watch out Florida: Forecast predicts active 2018 hurricane season

If this forecast would to verify, it would be a bit less active than the busy 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season-which featured 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

In a forecast closely watched by energy industry officials, Colorado State University hurricane researchers on Thursday predicted a slightly above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting that there is a 63% chance that a major hurricane will hit the USA mainland this year, compared with an average 52% probability.

The CSU team said Thursday it expects 14 named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin during the June 1-Nov.

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Long Island was pretty much spared previous year - which marked the fifth anniversary of superstorm Sandy - though areas of the South Shore and East End in September did experience high surf, coastal flooding and dune erosion from what had been Hurricane Jose, which lingered for days just to the southeast.

According to CSU, the forecast is based on an extended range early-April statistical prediction scheme compiled for nearly 30 years.

There also is a 52 percent probability that a major hurricane will move into the Caribbean Sea during the 2018 season that begins June 1 and runs through November 30, said researchers at Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project.

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Klotzbach said that sea surface temperatures would be important and that some of the models point to anomalous warming, which can mean more storms.

"We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for". Gulf Coast residents living between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, have a 38 percent chance of seeing landfall of a major hurricane, above average the past half-century 30 percent average again.

The last few years, Atlantic waters have started the year colder than normal but have significantly warmed in the spring and summer, CSU research scientist and forecast lead author Phil Klotzbach. Three - major hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria - wreaked havoc on several US states and territories, most notably Puerto Rico, Texas and Florida.

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The reason for the slightly higher than normal numbers is due to weakening La Niña weather pattern, as it transitions into more of a neutral setup, according to experts. "Look for storms to be stronger farther to the north and east than 2017".

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